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مقاله ترجمه شده آناليز ريسك
تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک
آنالیز ریسک تکنیکی است که برای شناسایی و ارزیابی مولفه‌ها و عواملی که ممکن است موفقیت یک پروژه یا دستیابی به یک هدف را به مخاطره بیاندازند، مورد استفاده قرار می گیرد. نام دیگر این فرآیند، «آنالیز حوادث پروژه» است. این فرآیند نیازمند انجام یک تجزیه و تحلیل هزینه-سود است. فرآیند هزینه-سود می بایست در بازنگری ویژگیها و مزایای یک دارایی یا فرآیند دخیل باشد.
بخشی از بازنگری یک پروژه، تعیین هزینه‌های آن است. این هزینه‌ها عبارتند از هزینه‌های تامین و توسعه؛ یعنی هزینه‌های عملیاتی و نگهداری و ...، هزینه‌های مستندسازی، هزینه‌های آموزشی نیروی انسانی، هزینه زیرساخت‌ها، هزینه بروزآوری، هزینه‌های جابجایی و مانند آن. تمامی این هزینه‌ها مستلزم جنبه‌های مادی و معنوی است.
اگرچه توجه به تمامی مولفه‌های هزینه‌ای برای تصمیم گیری در زمینه اجرای یک پروژه بسیار مهم است، ولی این هزینه‌های اجرایی تنها یک متغیر است. هزینه عدم اجرای یک پروژه نیز متغیر دیگری است که می‌بایست در فرآیند تجزیه و تحلیل مورد توجه قرار گیرد. چنانچه اجرای پروژه با تاخیر مواجه شده یا مورد تصویب قرار نگیرد، چه
اثراتی بر سازمان خواهد داشت؟ عدم پیشرفت پروژه چه تاثیراتی بر مزیتهای رقابتی سازمان دارد؟ چگونه می تواند توانایی شرکت در دستیابی به اهداف و ماموریتها را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد؟
در حالت کلی، هر جا که پول یا منابعی صرف می شود می بایست ارزیابی ریسک انجام شود. این امر سبب می شود که اجرا یا عدم اجرای پروژه با دلایل موجه همراه بوده و مدیر تلاش خود را جهت اتخاذ تصمیم درست انجام داده است. خروجی فرآیند تحلیل ریسک دو بار مورد استفاده قرار می گیرد. بار نخست در زمان اتخاذ تصمیم است. مورد دوم در زمان ارائه نتایج تصمیم به شخص ثالث یا شریک بیرونی است و مدیر ناچار است تا فرآیند تصمیم گیری خود را به وی ارائه دهد. در مجموع باید گفت که اجرای فرآیندهای تحلیل و ارزیابی ریسک، درک و تجسم مناسبی از کسب و کار بدست می دهد.
Risk analysis
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Risk Analysis can refer to:
• Risk analysis (engineering)
o Probabilistic risk assessment, an engineering safety analysis
• Risk analysis (Business)
• Certified Risk Analyst
Risk analysis (engineering)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Risk analysis is the science of risks and their probability and evaluation.
Probabilistic risk assessment is one analysis strategy usually employed in science and engineering.
[edit] Risk analysis and the risk workshop
Risk analysis should be performed as part of the risk management process for each project. The data of which would be based on risk discussion workshops to identify potential issues and risks ahead of time before these were to pose cost and/ or schedule negative impacts (see the article on Cost contingency for a discussion of the estimation of cost impacts).
The risk workshops should be chaired by a small group ideally between 6 to 10 individuals from the various departmental functions (e.g. project manager, construction manager, site superintendent, and representatives from operations, procurement, [project] controls, etc.) so as to cover every risk element from different perspectives.
The outcome of the risk analysis would be the creation or review of the risk register to identify and quantify risk elements to the project and their potential impact.
Given that risk management is a continuous and iterative process, the risk workshop members would regroup on at regular intervals and project milestones to review the risk register mitigation plans, make changes to it as appropriate and following those changes re-run the risk model. By constantly monitoring risks these can be successfully mitigated resulting in a cost and schedule savings with a positive impact on the project.
Risk analysis (Business)
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Risk analysis is a technique to identify and assess factors that may jeopardize the success of a project or achieving a goal. This technique also helps to define preventive measures to reduce the probability of these factors from occurring and identify countermeasures to successfully deal with these constraints when they develop to avert possible negative effects on the competitiveness of the company.
One of the more popular methods to perform a risk analysis in the computer field is called Facilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP).
[edit] Facilitated Risk Analysis Process
FRAP analyzes one system, application or segment of business processes at time.
FRAP assumes that additional efforts to develop precisely quantified risks are not cost effective because:
• such estimates are time consuming
• risk documentation becomes too voluminous for practical use
• specific loss estimates are generally not needed to determine if controls are needed.
After identifying and categorizing risks, a team identifies the controls that could mitigate the risk. The decision for what controls are needed lies with the business manager. The team's conclusions as to what risks exists and what controls needed are documented along with a related action plan for control implementation.
Th
ree of the most important risks a software company faces are: unexpected changes in revenue, unexpected changes in costs from those budgeted and the amount of specialization of the software planned. Risks that affect revenues can be: unanticipated competition, privacy, intellectual property right problems, and unit sales that are less than forecast. Unexpected development costs also create risk that can be in the form of more rework than anticipated, security holes, and privacy invasions. [1]
Narrow specialization of software with a large amount of research and development exp
enditures can lead to both business and technological risks since specialization does not necessarily lead to lower unit costs of software.[2] Combined with the decrease in the potential customer base, specialization risk can be significant for a software firm. After probabilities of scenarios have been calculated with risk analysis, the process of risk management can be applied to help manage the risk.
Methods like Applied Information Economics add to and improve on risk analysis methods by introducing procedures to adjust subjective probabilities, compute the value of additional information and to use the results in part of a larger portfolio management problem.
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